Abstract: 

We first describe the size, composition andcharacteristics of the recent unauthorised migration flows through Europeanborders. We then assess the effectiveness of border enforcement policies indeterring or diverting migration flows across alternative routes. Our empiricalanalysis is based on a novel dataset of Frontex records on attempted illegalcrossing by quarter, country of origin and route of entry in Europe for theperiod 2009-2016. These records are matched with a dataset – that we assembled- on the monthly EU budget spent on border enforcement and search and rescueoperations on each route of entry and with daily records on the number of deadand missing migrants by route. We aim at identifying the elasticity ofmigration attempts to border enforcement. We address the endogeneity of routeenforcement budget by exploiting the predetermined rotation of the EUpresidency as a source of variation in the budget that is orthogonal toexpected flows. Our first stage estimates suggest that enforcement budgetincreases on routes that are closer to the country currently holding the EUpresidency. Our second stage results show that border enforcement policiesdecrease migration flows on land routes but not on sea routes. Additionally, weshow that a higher risk of death on a route leads to a drop in migrationattempts on that route, but that immigrants are then diverted to alternativeroutes.