Event type Hybrid Event
LocationRoom BZ E3.20 | Universitätsplatz 1 - piazza Università, 1
Bozen
Location Information
Departments ECO Faculty
Contact Katarina Nemeckova
Katarina.Nemeckova@unibz.it
Modelling debris flows and rainfall dynamics: lagged dependence in extreme event processes
This DataCrunch research seminar by Dr. Selene Perazzini explores debris-flow modelling, introducing a copula-based approach to capture lagged rainfall effects in rare events.
Event type Hybrid Event
LocationRoom BZ E3.20 | Universitätsplatz 1 - piazza Università, 1
Bozen
Location Information
Departments ECO Faculty
Contact Katarina Nemeckova
Katarina.Nemeckova@unibz.it
Debris flows are rare and complex natural hazards, posing substantial challenges for statistical modelling due to data scarcity and the intricate interplay between rainfall, soil saturation, and geomorphological characteristics. Leveraging a recently developed database of debris-flow events in South Tyrol, this work explores statistical approaches for analysing such phenomena. We first discuss the limitations of standard regression-based methods for rare events, highlighting the challenges arising in highly sparse settings. Particular attention is then given to temporal dependence in environmental drivers. To this end, we propose a copula-based framework to model lagged dependence between debris-flow magnitude and antecedent rainfall. In this approach, the dependence structure is parameterized as a function of the lag, allowing us to capture delayed rainfall effects and to identify the temporal window most strongly associated with observed volumes of displaced sediments.
For online participation, please register at the link below