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Free University of Bozen-Bolzano

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Event type Hybrid Event

LocationRoom BZ E3.20 | Universitätsplatz 1 - piazza Università, 1
Bozen
Location Information

Departments ECO Faculty

Contact Katarina Nemeckova
Katarina.Nemeckova@unibz.it

22 Apr 2026 12:30-13:30

Modelling debris flows and rainfall dynamics: lagged dependence in extreme event processes

This DataCrunch research seminar by Dr. Selene Perazzini explores debris-flow modelling, introducing a copula-based approach to capture lagged rainfall effects in rare events.

Event type Hybrid Event

LocationRoom BZ E3.20 | Universitätsplatz 1 - piazza Università, 1
Bozen
Location Information

Departments ECO Faculty

Contact Katarina Nemeckova
Katarina.Nemeckova@unibz.it

Debris flows are rare and complex natural hazards, posing substantial challenges for statistical modelling due to data scarcity and the intricate interplay between rainfall, soil saturation, and geomorphological characteristics. Leveraging a recently developed database of debris-flow events in South Tyrol, this work explores statistical approaches for analysing such phenomena. We first discuss the limitations of standard regression-based methods for rare events, highlighting the challenges arising in highly sparse settings. Particular attention is then given to temporal dependence in environmental drivers. To this end, we propose a copula-based framework to model lagged dependence between debris-flow magnitude and antecedent rainfall. In this approach, the dependence structure is parameterized as a function of the lag, allowing us to capture delayed rainfall effects and to identify the temporal window most strongly associated with observed volumes of displaced sediments.

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