Themen der Lehrveranstaltung
M1 - Basics of stochastic processes theory and characteristics of time series data - Smoothing, filtering and decomposing a time series - Introduction to AR, MA, ARIMA and SARIMA models - Maximum likelihood estimation - Box & Jenkins procedure to analyse a time series - Forecasting methods: time series forecasting, density forecasting, forecasting from ARIMA models - Volatility models: ARCH and GARCH models and forecasting - Case studies M2 TBD

Unterrichtsform
Lectures, pre-recorded videos, and laboratory sessions. The course adopts a blended, student-centred approach that emphasises problem-based learning and active engagement. A portion of the lecture content is made available online in advance, allowing students to explore key concepts independently and at their own pace before attending class. This preparatory work enables inperson sessions to focus on the application of knowledge through real-world problems, collaborative activities, and guided discussions - fostering critical thinking and deeper learning. The course is fully aligned with the principles of the Italian Universities Digital Hub (EDUNEXT) initiative (https://edunext.eu), which promotes the integration of digital resources and active learning strategies within university teaching.

Bildungsziele
Knowledge and understanding: The student will acquire knowledge of the analytical techniques and tools required to understand and quantitatively analyse economic and business phenomena in order to support decision-making processes. Knowledge of statistical inference, linear models and their generalisations, linear algebra, and optimisation techniques will be consolidated. In-depth knowledge of the main techniques of supervised and unsupervised statistical learning will be acquired, which are functional for the development of analysis and visualisation capabilities of economic and business data. Applying knowledge and understanding: Ability to apply and implement analysis techniques focusing on different types of datasets such as streaming data, tabular data, documents and images and analysis on joint datasets. Ability to apply supervised and unsupervised learning topics, and knowledge modelling, extraction, integration, analysis and exploitation; these skills are declined in various application domains of interest to companies and public and private entities. Making judgements: Master graduates will have the ability to apply the acquired knowledge to interpret data in order to make managerial and operational decisions in a business context. Master's graduates will have the ability to apply the acquired knowledge to support processes related to production, management and risk promotion activities and investment choices through the organisation, analysis and interpretation of complex databases. Communication skills: Master's graduates will be able to communicate effectively in oral and written form the specialised contents of the individual disciplines, using different registers, depending on the recipients and the communicative and didactic purposes, and to evaluate the formative effects of their communication. Learning skills: "MSc graduates should be familiar with the tools of scientific research. They will also be able to make autonomous use of information technologies to carry out bibliographic research and investigations both for their own training and for further education. In addition, through the curricular teaching and the activities related to the preparation of the final thesis, they will be able to acquire the ability - to identify thematic connections and to establish relationships between methods of analysis and application contexts; - to frame a new problem in a systematic manner and to implement appropriate analysis solutions; - to formulate general statistical-econometric models from the phenomena studied.

Bildungsziele und erwartete Lernergebnisse (zus. Informationen)
M1 The course will provide students with the ability to analyze and interpret data using econometric models. 1) Knowledge and understanding. The course will equip students with the ability to organize and combine economic and business data starting from structured databases. It will also enable students to acquire knowledge about state-of-the-art of models to represent time series data. 2) Applying knowledge and understanding: Students will be able to implement data management techniques and econometric models in order to extract proper information from data, useful to analyse real phenomena in several fields of economics and management, and to understand their most important aspects. 3) Making judgements: students who successfully complete this course will be able to select the most appropriate data management approaches and apply proficiently statistical model to obtain inferences and predictions using statistical software, and organize results in order to draw conclusions and decide in uncertain situations, like in specific economic and business situations. 4) Communication skills: students who successfully complete this course will be able to communicate, to experts and non-experts the results of their analyses using specific software. 5) Learning skills: the course is aimed to provide the methodological and applied knowledge of data management for subsequent econometric modeling, and necessary to address subsequent analyses. M2 TBD

Art der Prüfung
The overall exam mark will be determined by the assessment of the two modules (M1+M2) M1 Attending students: Written exam composed of exercises and theoretical questions (50% of the final grade), group project and presentation (50% of the final grade). Non-attending students: Written exam composed of exercises, theoretical questions, tasks related to data analysis (100% of the final grade). M2 TBD

Bewertungskriterien
M1 Attending students: 50% written exam (consisting of theoretical questions and exercises), 50% group project report (consisting of analysis tasks on data sets assigned during the semester to be carried out through the use of statistical software) and presentation of the project. Non-attending students: 100% written exam consisting of theoretical questions, exercises, and data analysis tasks. Evaluation criteria for both written exams and projects: clarity in exposition, knowledge and understanding of statistical methods, ability to apply appropriate statistical procedures, correctness of results. M2 TBD