abstract: 

Understanding the Origins of Populist Political Parties

New Zealand First (NZ First) is anationalist and populist political party founded in 1993 making it one of theoldest populist parties in the OECD. It takes a centrist position on economicissues but is socially conservative and advocates for restrictive immigrationpolicies. The party distinguishes itself from the mainstream political establishmentthrough its use of populist rhetoric. Hence, it is quite similar in nature tothe National Front in France and Lega in Italy, as well, as other conservativepopulist parties in Europe. In this paper, we use electoral survey data toexamine the impact that two large external shocks had on the development of theparty; i) structural reforms and the opening of free trade which were initiatedin 1984 and led to large negative impacts on particular industries (and henceon particular locations); and ii) the Immigration Reform Act of 1987 which ledto the development of a skilled migration system and large increases in skilledmigration. We examine i) the short-run impact of these shocks on voting for NZFirst; ii) how these shocks led individuals to change their beliefs andpolitical preferences; iii) the long-run persistence of these shocks; and iv)their importance relative to other factors that encourage people to vote for NZFirst. Understanding how these shocks led to the development of NZ First is particularrelevant for thinking about how populism has been extending its reach in the2010s.